AI & Microsoft.
As we see it.

AI’s operating layer hardens while compute build-out and state oversight keep widening

AI is no longer being sold mainly as a model with a chat box on top. That line has now held for eight weeks, and the week pushed it further into enterprise plumbing. OpenAI released an Agents API - a managed cloud service where one call creates a long-running agent while OpenAI handles orchestration, context management and code execution - alongside a voice model for full-duplex conversations, a financial-services package and a data agent for enterprise analytics. Microsoft, from the other side, put Grok in limited preview inside Copilot for Word, Excel and PowerPoint as an admin-controlled model option rather than a new assistant of its own. Google Cloud packaged tools for coding agents, and Alibaba Cloud set out a memory stack for agent workloads. This appears to tighten the same conclusion: what buyers are being asked to choose is increasingly the layer that routes work, remembers state, connects tools and governs use, not a single model in isolation.

High-end AI compute still looks like a build-out that operators expect to last, not a one-wave spike. That statement has held for eight weeks as well, and this week it widened from chips into power and cooling. Oracle reported 850MW of additional cloud datacenter capacity, more than 300,000 GPUs supplied to AI cloud customers and over $30 billion in new AI cloud contracts. TSMC said its 5-, 4- and 3-nanometre capacity for AI server processors is fully booked, while DMG secured 75MW for an AI colocation site and applied for up to 150MW more. SolarEdge said part of its 800 VDC data-centre power system is now running under load in its labs, and Blackstone agreed to buy a supplier of liquid-cooling components for data centres. For anyone using generative AI, this likely matters because the constraint is still moving outward from the model to the physical estate behind it: supply, power conversion and cooling remain part of what determines who can serve advanced systems at scale.

Governments and quasi-regulators are no longer treating AI oversight as a backdrop; they are shaping how systems may be deployed and, at times, whether they may run at all. That line has held for eight weeks, and the week touched both enforcement and pre-emptive rule-setting. In Bremen, an AI drowning-detection camera system was taken offline until a required GDPR risk assessment is completed. China tightened its national AI safety framework, while Microsoft, teachers’ unions and school districts moved governance into enforceable customer terms that ban training on student data and require human oversight. This suggests the operating environment is becoming more legally and contractually segmented: providers and users alike increasingly need not just capable systems, but versions, controls and paperwork that fit each jurisdiction and buyer.

Evidence

Our forecast

We expect Google, OpenAI, AWS or Salesforce to let administrators choose between at least two AI models for the same task in one of their business AI products by the end of the year – inside the product, not just for developers.

what we hold ourselves toDue 2026-12-31

By 2026-12-31 at least one major enterprise AI product from either Google, OpenAI, Amazon Web Services or Salesforce must publicly announce that administrators or workspace owners can choose between at least two named foundation models for the same end-user workflow inside the product, rather than only through a developer API.